Agencja Rynku Energii S.A.

One of the key elements in achieving the goals defined in the EU's strategic documents will be the development of hydrogen production and application technologies in the economy. As is known, hydrogen can be used as a raw material, fuel, carrier, or energy storage. To maximize the potential of entities operating within this emerging sector, a well-thought-out strategy is needed, based on the most up-to-date projections of market development. The starting point in formulating development strategies for any sector is primarily the analysis of potential areas of application and production capabilities. According to the assumptions of EU energy policy, the main source of hydrogen in Europe will be electrolysis based on electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). An important question in this context is, how much hydrogen will we be able to produce, considering the potential for RES development in Poland in various timeframes? Another important question is, how much hydrogen do we need to decarbonize sectors such as transport, industry, energy, or heating?

The report will present the current state of the hydrogen market, its future development prospects, and the sectors of the economy where this fuel will find application, for various scenarios of decarbonizing the Polish economy. Issues related to the potential for hydrogen production and demand formation will constitute the greatest added value of this report.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

The changing situation in the international and domestic markets regarding the availability and prices of energy raw materials requires up-to-date data and analyses for making important business decisions. The Energy Market Agency offers monthly summaries of essential information on the volume and prices of hard coal in the domestic and European markets.

The domestic market data includes information on the prices and sales volumes of thermal coal to power plants, combined heat and power plants, and industrial energy. Additionally, data on coal production and stocks will be presented. The bulletin will also present selected aspects of international trade in thermal coal, including the export and import of Polish coal (broken down by country, volume of deliveries, and their prices in USD/t), as well as the import of thermal coal by EU-27 countries overall (broken down by supplier countries, volumes, and prices in USD/t), with additional data for selected EU countries.

This report is aimed at entities in the thermal coal trade sector active in the domestic and international markets. The data provided is intended to enable market monitoring and facilitate the assessment of the activities of coal trading entities. The proposed scope of the report is outlined below:

1. Domestic thermal coal trade
   1. Hard coal production
   2. Sales volumes
   3. Coal consumption volumes in the energy sector
   4. Hard coal sales prices in Poland
2. International thermal coal trade
   1. Coal imports to selected European countries
   2. Export of Polish coal to European markets
   3. Import of Polish coal by importing countries
3. Coal prices in international markets
   1. CIF ARA price indices
   2. Current freight rates
   3. Coal price trends 

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The report will include a reliable assessment of the technical and environmental documentation as well as an analysis of the efficiency of electricity generation in PV installations.

Current meteorological data and technical specifications of the panels installed in the analyzed projects will be used to prepare the analysis of electricity generation efficiency from photovoltaic farms, allowing for a highly accurate forecast of the photovoltaic farm's production capacity. For revenue forecasting from electricity production, we use current forecasts prepared by ARE specialists.

As part of the technical and economic analysis of the investment, you will receive:

• a forecast of electricity production from the installation,
• expected profits from the sale of this energy,
• analysis of NPV, IRR, ROI, and other economic indicators,
• analysis of potential revenues from the auction support system.

To prepare such a report, additional data from the client is required:

• Planned power of the investment,
• Location of the planned photovoltaic farm (plots),
• Model and power of photovoltaic panels,
• Model and power of inverters.

It is also possible to supplement the necessary technical data for the analysis by experts from the Energy Market Agency. As part of the technical analysis of the investment, clients will receive a forecast of electricity production from the installation, taking into account changes in PV panel productivity over the years.

As part of the technical analysis of the investment, you will receive a forecast of electricity production from the installation, taking into account changes in the productivity of PV modules over the years. In addition, we offer audits of already operational photovoltaic farms. The audit activities include:

• visual inspection – examination of the selection and correctness of component installation, analysis of documentation (design, datasheets, installation instructions, etc.) and comparison with the actual state,
• electrical measurements – insulation resistance, grounding, and short-circuit loop impedance measurements,
• drawing the current-voltage (I-V) characteristic – measurement of the electrical parameters of the module strings,
• electroluminescence (EL) testing – testing for potential module damage.

The offered tests will be conducted by experts with many years of experience in designing, installing, testing, and auditing photovoltaic installations. Our experienced team guarantees the highest quality of the service provided.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

Interest in electric and hybrid cars among potential users in Poland is steadily increasing. The market is offering more and more models, and month by month, the number of buyers is growing. In this new reality of an increasingly environmentally conscious society, an electric vehicle fleet can serve as a hallmark of a modern enterprise.

In light of the growing interest in electric vehicles, not only among individual citizens but also among commercial companies, the Energy Market Agency S.A. offers to conduct a feasibility study on transitioning from a combustion vehicle fleet to an electric and/or hybrid fleet. This service is available for businesses interested in gradually replacing several or a dozen vehicles with more environmentally friendly options, as well as for large companies operating hundreds of such vehicles.

The study will cover the following topics:

1. Description of national policy regarding electromobility:

   • Overview of the main legal acts regulating electromobility,

   • Overview of the most important planned support systems for electromobility dedicated to entrepreneurs – subsidies for building charging stations or purchasing vehicles, etc.

2. Analysis of the electric vehicle market

   • How many electric and hybrid cars are sold, what brands and models are most common?

   • Forecasts for the development of this market segment,

   • Challenges facing the e-mobility market segment.

3. Electric vehicle charging stations

   • The pace of development of charging stations, what types of charging stations are suitable for which situations?

4. Analysis of the costs of the current vehicle fleet of the enterprise (fuel, service, vehicle replacement, leasing),

5. Analysis of the costs of the future ecological fleet in the enterprise (electricity costs, service, vehicle replacement, leasing),

6. Conclusions from the analysis

   • The analysis can be scenario-based, e.g., replacing 25%, 50% of vehicles with electric or hybrid cars,

7. Comparison of costs between fuel and electric or hybrid fleets.

Depending on the individual needs of your enterprise and expectations regarding the issues addressed in electromobility, the detailed topics of the study may change.

In the final report, you will receive answers to the questions: Is e-mobility already profitable? If so, what savings will such a change bring to your company? If the answer in the current reality is different from expected, the report will attempt to show what changes must occur in the market for ecological vehicles for such an undertaking to become profitable.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The study aims to answer the question of whether it is worthwhile for individual customers to purchase an electric car instead of a gasoline one. "Electric Cars for Individual Customers" is a comprehensive study that includes a selection of the most popular electric cars, both passenger and commercial, along with a comparison to their gasoline counterparts. 

The presented TCO (total cost of ownership) analysis will compare, among other things, the costs of purchase (financing options), operation, insurance, and maintenance between electric and gasoline cars. As a result, it will show under what operational conditions an electric car will be cheaper than a gasoline one. The study will also address the issue of the possibility of charging an electric car 
from publicly available charging networks.

The study will also present the main assistance programs 
and subsidies for purchasing an electric car for individual customers, such as "My Electric," as well as other privileges for electric car drivers, such as free parking in designated urban zones.

Below, we present the table of contents of the offered study:

1. Analysis of the electric vehicle market.
   1. Specifics and characteristics of electric cars,
   2. Criteria for selecting electric cars for analysis,
   3. Characteristics of selected passenger electric cars (brands, specifications, prices),
   4. Characteristics of selected commercial electric vehicles (brands, specifications, prices).
2. Charging stations for electric cars.
   1. Network of electric vehicle charging stations and availability of charging in the country,
   2. Average costs of charging an electric car.
3. Analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of an electric car along with a comparison to a gasoline car.
   1. Analysis of possible financing options (cash, credit, consumer leasing),
   2. Insurance, service, and charging costs,
   3. Other additional costs.
4. Conclusions from the analysis – comparison of electric cars with gasoline ones.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The Energy Market Agency S.A. offers a service to support the strategic procurement of electricity and natural gas, aimed at reducing energy supply costs incurred by customers. The offer is primarily directed at companies that purchase energy based on contracts linked to stock indices. As is known, energy prices on the exchanges change dynamically, so it is important to know how they may evolve in the future to be able to buy energy during periods of the lowest prices. Choosing the right time to purchase significantly affects the financial results of the company. Accurate forecasts of SPOT prices and futures contracts are needed for this. ARE S.A. offers its support in this area, as it has many years of experience in energy forecasting, a rich toolkit, and a team of experienced specialists.

Scope of the Offer

As part of the offer, ARE proposes to prepare recommendations regarding pricing strategy (included in a specially prepared Report), which will be optimal from the customer's cost perspective. The report will include:

1. A synthetic characterization of the electricity and/or natural gas market in Poland
2. An analysis of the customer's existing energy procurement strategy
3. An analysis of the customer's electricity and/or natural gas consumption
4. Recommendations regarding the optimal strategy for building the price of electricity and/or natural gas
5. Price forecasts for energy on TGE (SPOT prices and in futures contracts), taking into account risk analysis of price increases/decreases  

Methodology

The work will utilize a model of electricity prices that takes into account key factors influencing the level of RDN quotations:

1. The level of electricity demand in the National Power System
2. Expected load of individual generating units (coal-fired power plants WK/WB, gas-fired, biomass, biogas, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, professional electricity, industrial electricity, others)
3. Planned outages of generating units
4. Unplanned outages of generating units (based on historical analysis)
5. Electricity import-export capabilities and the situation in neighboring markets (taking into account transmission limitations)
6. Prices of primary fuels (coal, natural gas, biomass)
7. CO2 emission allowance prices
8. Other environmental costs
9. O&M costs (fixed and variable non-fuel).

The electricity price forecast model will include elements such as: the correlation of electricity prices with other market factors, the relationship between domestic market prices and prices in neighboring markets, and the impact of energy policy and market regulations on the formation of electricity prices. 

The mechanism for forming wholesale prices in the energy market will be based on the merit order curve (at a given moment, only power plants with a total capacity corresponding to demand are included in the system, ranked from the most efficient, competing with each other based on marginal cost - SRMC). The last generating unit closing the balance in a given hour will set the market price. Factors affecting the current and predicted situation in the fuel and energy market in Poland and Europe will be analyzed, including the risk of temporary restrictions on fuel availability.

In the gas price model, historical gas prices on the Current Day Market and quotes of futures products (BASE, Y, Q, M) on TGE, data from the TTF market, and the most up-to-date projections of natural gas prices imported to the EU, prepared by recognized research centers, will be utilized. Key factors (demand and supply) influencing the level of natural gas prices in Europe and Poland will be included in the price projections, such as:

• The level of domestic extraction
• The level of LNG supply
• The level of supply from other directions, taking into account the current situation in the gas market in Europe
• The level of gas storage fill in the country and the EU
• Projections of LNG prices for import to the EU.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

In connection with the growing interest and profitability of electromobility, the Energy Market Agency presents the report “Electromobility in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises” – a report on the current state of electromobility in Poland.

This report will analyze the following issues:

• total cost of ownership (TCO), including:
  • profitability of purchasing/operational leasing/renting electric vehicles,
  • servicing costs of electric vehicles,
  • charging costs of electric vehicles,
  • vehicle insurance costs,
• average costs of installing wallboxes for charging electric vehicles,
• financial support programs for enterprises investing in electromobility,
• other benefits of using electric vehicles, such as free parking or image benefits.

As a result, the report will answer questions such as: Is it cheaper to operate electric vehicles, and by how much? Which selected electric vehicles are the most financially advantageous? What are the possibilities of financing electric vehicles?

The report will present an analysis of the most popular electric passenger and commercial vehicles and their comparison with their internal combustion counterparts. The comparison will illustrate under what operating conditions (mileage, servicing costs) the electric vehicles will be more profitable than internal combustion ones. We will also attempt to demonstrate what changes need to occur in the market for ecological vehicles for such an undertaking to become definitively profitable.

A sample table of contents for the report:

1. Description of national policy regarding electromobility.
   1. The latest amendments to the Act of January 11, 2018, on electromobility and alternative fuels,
   2. Executive acts to the Act on electromobility and alternative fuels,
   3. Description of the most important support systems for electromobility.
2. Analysis of the electric vehicle market.
   1. Specifics and characteristics of electric vehicles,
   2. Criteria for selecting electric vehicles for analysis,
   3. Characteristics of selected electric passenger vehicles (brands, specifications, prices),
   4. Characteristics of selected electric commercial vehicles (brands, specifications, prices),
   5. The number of electric and hybrid vehicles sold, including brands and models.
3. Charging stations for electric vehicles.
   1. The network of charging stations for electric vehicles and the availability of charging in the country,
   2. Average costs of installing wallboxes for charging electric vehicles,
   3. Average costs of charging an electric vehicle.
4. Analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of an electric vehicle compared to an internal combustion vehicle.
   1. Analysis of possible financing options (cash, renting, leasing),
   2. Insurance, servicing, and charging costs,
   3. Other additional costs and privileges for electric vehicles.
5. Conclusions from the analysis – comparison of electric vehicles with internal combustion vehicles.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

Statistical studies planned and conducted by public authorities under the direction of the President of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), sometimes with the participation of other authorities or state offices, do not cover all informational needs of enterprises, institutions, or research facilities. Public statistics, as well as other publicly available sources of information, are unable to identify and meet all individual needs in this area.

The Energy Market Agency S.A., utilizing years of experience in the field of energy economy research and analysis, using its own IT tools that enable quick data collection and verification, offers to conduct research within timeframes and scopes that allow our Clients to obtain information that cannot be obtained through other means, supplementing their knowledge and allowing for a fuller understanding of issues of interest.

Individual statistical research, carried out according to the Client's needs, includes the following tasks:

• development of a survey – research questionnaire along with an explanation of how to complete it,
• selecting respondents for the study - in case the Client does not wish to specify the research sample (or the entire population) themselves,
• data collection and verification,
• development of the research results, depending on the needs and requirements of the Client 
  in the form of:
  • tables,
  • charts,
  • analytical report.

Contact:

Joanna Matysiak
tel. 22-444-20-80
email: joanna.matysiak@are.waw.pl

In the changing market and legal realities, a reliable assessment of biomass procurement opportunities becomes a key task for making responsible decisions regarding investments in renewable energy sources based on biomass. 

The purpose of this study is to present the supply of biomass that can be utilized for energy purposes, divided by types of biomass, as well as a forecast of this supply until 2026. 

In particular, the analysis will cover the following types of biomass:

• Agro biomass: straw, hay, biomass from food waste;
• Biomass from energy crops;
• Forest biomass: wood from forests, waste biomass from wood processing plants;
• Biomass from other sources: sewage sludge, animal manure.

The study will present historical data on biomass supply, the physicochemical properties of the most important biomass fuels, and biomass prices used in energy production. The paper will also present a probable price trajectory for each type of biomass along with forecasts of their supply until 2026. 

Additionally, the study will include an overview of the main biomass producers and consumers in Poland, as well as a review of planned investments and auctions for renewable energy sources for biomass sources. 

In the case of ordering a study for the entire country, we also offer an analysis of historical data on biomass import and export, along with a forecast until 2026.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The study will consist of two main parts. The first part will include a characterization of the current natural gas market in Poland. It will present the most up-to-date statistical data on natural gas consumption, broken down by: sectors of the economy, voivodeships and regions, and customer segments.
The analysis will examine the directions of energy and non-energy gas consumption in Poland and the technical, economic, and ecological conditions that determine the choice and use of natural gas in various applications.

Historical data regarding gas supplies to Poland and storage capacities will also be presented.

The impact of the Third Energy Package on the Polish gas market, including gas infrastructure, will be discussed.

The second part of the study will present prospects and opportunities for increased natural gas demand in the country as a whole and in selected regions in the long term.

The analysis will cover the economic situation of individual regions of Poland in order to identify potential future gas consumers, i.e., enterprises that are large consumers of fuels and energy and have not yet been connected to the gas network, as well as companies using small amounts of gas.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
email: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

The development of renewable energy sources is one of the main directions of energy policy in Poland and the European Union. One of the most economically viable technologies for obtaining electricity and heat using renewable resources is biogas plants. The substrate for biogas production can be landfill gas, gas from wastewater treatment plants, or gas obtained from agricultural waste or products. Depending on the substrate used, biogas plants are subject to different regulations. 

We offer you a complete greenfield analysis, which is a comprehensive feasibility study of the installation. The study can be conducted in the absence of preferred assumptions regarding the designed investment or for a technology of biogas plant construction chosen by the Client, along with the optimal method of ensuring supplies of organic substrates.

For greenfield projects, we propose to develop a business plan and financial model based on external data or provided by the Client. The business plan will analyze key aspects of the operation of biogas plants under Polish conditions and elements of its business environment, including, among others:

• analysis of the potential for substrate acquisition in amounts sufficient to meet the installation's needs;
• characteristics of biogas plants in Poland (number of installations, ownership structure, utilized substrates, investment expenditures, electricity and heat production),
• analysis of the local heat market,
• regulatory environment for biogas plants in Poland (level of support for installations, connection procedures to the grid, obtaining a license for electricity generation from renewable sources, issuing certificates of origin for electricity from RES, trading in certificates of origin, heat pricing),
• preliminary environmental impact assessment,
• forecasted price trajectories for electricity.

The financial model of the biogas plant will be based on the Client's own assumptions or assumptions provided by the Client. The financial model will present the values of investment profitability indicators (NPV, IRR) depending on changing external parameters (e.g., connection costs, annual productivity of the installation, electricity prices, substrate costs, or the value of the correction factor).

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl